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A value-investing model that beat the S&P 500.

At VSD Investments I built a value-investing predictive formula that screens for supply bottlenecks in emerging trends, weights entries against Federal Reserve rate cycles, and scores company fundamentals into a composite trustworthiness index. It has compounded at roughly 27% and outpaced the S&P 500, and I carry the same focus on markets into competition and financial-literacy work.

~27.0%
CAGR
$35k → $91k
portfolio growth
Top 8%
Investopedia competitor

VSD Investments LLC

A formula built on supply bottlenecks

The formula starts where demand outruns supply. It screens for supply bottlenecks inside emerging trends, then weights entry timing against Federal Reserve rate cycles, then scores company fundamentals into a composite trustworthiness index. Three passes, each one removing a different kind of mistake: buying the wrong thing, buying the right thing at the wrong time, and buying the right thing at the right time from the wrong company.

The formula, in three passes

Each pass throws out a different kind of mistake: buying the wrong thing, buying the right thing at the wrong time, and buying the right thing at the right time from the wrong company. Step through them.

Everyone can see the trend. The formula looks one layer beneath it, for the input that physically cannot scale as fast as the demand pulling on it, the constraint that turns a story into pricing power.

In practice: AI data centers need baseload power faster than baseload power can be built. The trend is AI; the bottleneck is generation.

1 of 3

Worked example

Nuclear power and the data-center buildout

The trend everyone can see is AI. The trend is not the trade. Training and inference need electricity at a scale and a reliability that intermittent generation cannot cover, and baseload capacity takes years to permit and build, so power becomes the binding constraint on how fast compute can actually be deployed. That is what the first pass is looking for: the input that physically cannot scale as fast as the demand pulling on it. A constraint like that turns a narrative into pricing power, because the constrained supplier does not have to compete on price to capture the trend's economics.

  • The screen asks what runs out first, not what grows fastest.
  • A bottleneck has to be physical or regulatory to hold. Anything a competitor can simply build more of is not one.
  • The same logic reads across trends: the constraint moves, the method does not.

Track record

What it compounded to

The formula compounded at roughly 27.0% a year and took the portfolio from $35,000 to $91,000, ahead of the S&P 500 over the same period. Compounding is the whole argument for a repeatable method over a good call: the gap against a market-return baseline is small in year one and is most of the balance by year four.

  • Roughly 27.0% CAGR, beating the S&P 500 over the same period.
  • Grew the portfolio from $35k to $91k.
  • Top 8% finish as an Investopedia competitor.

What ~27% a year does to $35,000

$35,000 became $91,000. Money growing at a normal long-run market return of about 10% a year would have reached roughly $51k over the same stretch. Most of that gap opens up in the last two years, that is what compounding does, and it is the argument for a repeatable method over one good call.

The formula compounded at roughly 27.0% and took the portfolio from $35k to $91k, about 4 years at that rate, against a 10% long-run reference.

  • VSD formula · 27.0% a year
  • 10% / yr reference
$0$25k$50k$75k$100k$91k$35k$51k at 10%$40k aheadYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4
Start → after 4 years, against the 10% reference$35k → $91k

Hover or drag across the chart to read any point. With the chart focused, the arrow keys do the same.

Data & method

$35k to $91k at ~27% CAGR, the compounding path implied by the endpoints, not a record of actual positions. Intermediate points are arithmetic, not marks; the axis is deliberately undated. The reference line is a flat 10%/yr, not a dated S&P return over the same window. CAGR means compound annual growth rate: the single yearly rate that turns the starting figure into the ending one.

Peak to Peak Finance Club

From member to president

I joined as a freshman, was elected Secretary junior year, and now lead the club as President, growing membership to 110 students. Competing in the Council for Economic Education's National Personal Finance Challenge, our team was the best in the state and advanced to the national semifinals, and I have competed at the international level in high-school economics and finance competitions.

Four years, member to president

Peak to Peak Finance Club, ninth grade through twelfth.

  1. 9thMember
  2. 10thMember
  3. 11thSecretary
  4. 12thPresident
Membership grown to
110
CEE Personal Finance Challenge
State Champion / National Semifinalist

Financial literacy

Making the market legible

Beyond my own portfolio, I work to close the financial-literacy gap. Through SEWA International USA my current focus is the shortage of practical money education in the United States, and my academic grounding runs through AP Microeconomics, AP Macroeconomics, and a college-level Personal Finance course I finished with an A.

Philosophy

Why value investing

Momentum asks what other people will do next. Value asks what a business is worth and waits for the price to agree, which means the work is research rather than prediction and the edge compounds instead of expiring. It also fails honestly: when a value thesis is wrong, the reason is usually written down in the thesis itself, so the next one can be better. That is the same reason the research work appeals to me. Both are the practice of holding a claim to evidence and being specific about the conditions under which you would abandon it.

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